* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 72 59 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 72 59 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 73 62 51 43 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 34 37 38 44 66 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 12 7 3 3 1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 249 247 239 233 236 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.3 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 153 150 137 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 58 54 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 13 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -7 7 21 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 47 54 73 86 47 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 30 23 10 2 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 298 270 200 135 -44 -253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 25.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.6 108.2 108.1 107.9 107.6 106.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 25 24 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -18. -28. -42. -49. -56. -63. -69. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -4. -8. -17. -20. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -26. -39. -54. -70. -89.-100.-108.-116.-124.-130.-131. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##