* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 62 48 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 62 48 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 65 55 46 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 39 44 48 53 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 11 1 -1 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 246 245 243 240 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.0 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 154 146 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 59 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 11 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 16 19 10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 66 59 68 72 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 23 22 19 20 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 233 142 15 -111 -437 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.4 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 107.8 107.3 106.7 106.1 104.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 27 26 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -18. -29. -36. -44. -53. -61. -67. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -12. -19. -21. -21. -21. -21. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -6. -3. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -26. -39. -51. -72. -83. -92.-100.-105.-110.-113.-111. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##