* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 48 36 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 48 36 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 49 41 33 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 45 49 54 65 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 5 3 1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 244 240 236 240 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 146 141 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 50 46 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 5 16 19 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 51 60 79 71 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 28 17 13 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 204 154 86 0 -160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.3 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.4 108.1 107.8 107.5 106.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 16 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -26. -36. -47. -60. -70. -78. -83. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -24. -33. -42. -58. -71. -83. -94.-103.-111.-115.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##