* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 45 50 61 70 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 245 237 237 239 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 145 140 136 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 44 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -1 7 10 11 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 67 85 83 47 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 22 12 2 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 129 61 82 72 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.1 108.9 108.8 108.7 108.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -24. -40. -57. -71. -80. -85. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. -19. -15. -13. -12. -8. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -27. -35. -45. -58. -71. -83. -94.-102.-104. -99. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##