* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 49 56 65 74 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 2 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 243 238 237 244 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 144 139 134 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 39 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 7 6 5 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 2 3 14 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 83 78 49 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 15 1 7 11 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 103 82 44 -49 -201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.4 25.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 108.8 108.6 108.2 107.8 107.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -23. -41. -62. -78. -89. -95. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -15. -13. -10. -10. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -26. -35. -49. -64. -79. -92.-102.-106.-102. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##