* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902015 12/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 24 23 26 29 34 37 39 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 24 23 26 29 34 37 39 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 26 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 24 24 24 23 23 29 26 21 18 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 25 30 28 27 26 23 18 9 2 6 4 5 11 SHEAR DIR 106 114 115 107 104 108 130 142 172 198 169 164 148 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 161 159 157 156 152 151 152 153 155 155 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 71 70 70 66 70 66 62 51 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 15 14 12 12 12 13 13 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 247 237 215 207 199 166 129 118 122 142 160 168 139 200 MB DIV 83 64 52 41 58 26 6 43 70 53 33 34 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 4 7 7 4 2 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2878 2884 2893 2936 3555 3389 3234 3094 2950 2776 2585 2376 2155 LAT (DEG N) 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.7 LONG(DEG W) 177.5 178.2 178.9 179.9 180.8 182.9 185.0 186.9 188.8 190.7 192.6 194.6 196.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 132 133 129 123 100 98 95 86 84 87 99 112 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -8. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -12. -9. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -23. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 10. 11. 10. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 12/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 123.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902015 INVEST 12/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##