* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE CP092015 12/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 30 32 36 39 40 45 45 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 30 32 36 39 40 45 45 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 29 28 29 31 32 33 33 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 25 22 17 13 15 16 24 20 17 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 35 32 24 23 27 22 22 18 11 11 14 8 10 SHEAR DIR 127 119 103 98 97 116 109 142 157 164 165 158 127 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 161 161 158 156 156 155 154 155 156 157 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -50.0 -50.4 -49.8 -49.4 -50.0 -49.6 -50.5 -49.9 -50.8 -50.3 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 76 74 70 65 66 66 65 58 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 15 14 13 13 12 13 12 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 250 244 239 229 217 194 167 158 152 149 142 158 136 200 MB DIV 60 69 84 88 81 86 45 56 59 54 54 50 11 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 1 2 8 8 7 0 0 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2777 2783 2791 2809 2829 3630 3478 3311 3137 2957 2771 2547 2308 LAT (DEG N) 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.1 LONG(DEG W) 175.7 176.4 177.0 177.8 178.5 180.2 182.1 184.1 186.2 188.3 190.4 192.5 194.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 126 121 120 119 117 102 96 95 93 88 97 104 119 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -11. -10. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -24. -25. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 10. 11. 11. 10. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 10. 15. 15. 19. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP092015 NINE 12/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 120.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP092015 NINE 12/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##