* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE CP092015 12/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 39 40 45 54 54 55 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 39 40 45 54 54 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 30 30 31 33 36 39 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 22 21 17 16 24 18 15 12 17 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 31 23 23 26 27 27 28 23 23 23 21 12 11 SHEAR DIR 108 92 89 98 115 113 140 147 129 83 123 92 93 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 160 160 159 157 158 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -49.8 -49.4 -49.7 -49.5 -49.9 -49.6 -50.0 -49.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 85 83 80 78 77 72 70 75 81 78 76 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 20 20 17 14 14 14 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 249 246 240 239 240 227 216 213 212 208 192 194 206 200 MB DIV 93 85 101 99 100 88 76 86 88 88 85 84 94 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 -2 2 1 LAND (KM) 2800 2804 2808 2813 2818 2836 2856 2885 2900 2924 3609 3560 3487 LAT (DEG N) 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 LONG(DEG W) 175.9 176.2 176.4 176.7 176.9 177.5 178.1 178.7 179.2 179.7 180.2 180.8 181.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 131 129 127 126 126 128 130 132 131 126 102 100 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -13. -12. -12. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -11. -11. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 14. 12. 14. 14. 13. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 15. 24. 24. 25. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP092015 NINE 12/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 127.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP092015 NINE 12/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##