* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE CP092015 12/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 48 54 62 65 70 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 48 54 62 65 70 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 32 35 39 44 49 55 62 71 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 18 17 14 24 23 6 13 14 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 24 27 25 26 23 28 26 24 26 17 14 7 9 SHEAR DIR 86 87 92 98 112 108 127 148 107 70 82 67 71 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 160 159 159 159 158 157 156 156 156 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -49.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.4 -50.0 -49.5 -50.6 -49.9 -50.5 -49.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 84 79 77 75 73 70 75 76 77 72 69 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 19 19 17 15 16 15 15 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 253 246 234 233 226 217 212 210 217 214 204 222 222 200 MB DIV 85 97 83 102 95 84 85 99 105 120 109 93 109 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 4 5 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 2879 2885 2892 2898 2905 2918 2933 2948 2963 3583 3554 3515 3476 LAT (DEG N) 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 LONG(DEG W) 177.4 177.6 177.8 178.0 178.2 178.6 179.0 179.4 179.8 180.2 180.6 181.1 181.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 135 137 138 138 139 140 140 138 133 101 100 101 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -3. 0. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -13. -12. -12. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -8. -9. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 19. 23. 26. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 15. 13. 14. 14. 13. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 18. 24. 32. 35. 40. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP092015 NINE 12/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 137.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP092015 NINE 12/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##