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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042016
500 AM HST FRI JUL 15 2016

Celia has continued to weaken overnight, with infrared and
fog product satellite imagery showing the exposed low-level
circulation center moving almost due west, while the dissipating
remnants of earlier deep convection rotate around an apparent 
mid-level circulation center farther to the east. Although
subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity estimates have dropped
to between 1.0/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, a 15/0624 UTC ASCAT pass
sampled the western portion of the circulation, and found a
significant area of 30 kt winds extending a considerable distance
west and northwest of the center. Also, an earlier 14/1912 UTC
ASCAT pass found areas of 45 to 50 kt winds in the northern
semicircle. The initial intensity will be lowered to 35 kt for this
advisory. 

The cyclone has turned slightly more to the west as expected, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. Celia is expected to
continue moving steadily west to west-northwest during the next
several days as a shallow system steered by low-level trade winds.
The guidance suite is in good agreement with this scenario. The new
forecast track is very similar to the previous track, with some
slight adjustments toward the TVCE multi-model consensus.

Celia has been moving over sea surface temperatures near 24C, and
is embedded in a stable airmass as well. Slightly warmer SSTs
around 25C lie along the forecast track, but SHIPS guidance and
the global models depict a further increase in westerly vertical
wind shear after 24 hours, which should prevent regeneration. The
new intensity forecast weakens Celia to depression status by 12
hours, and to a remnant low by 24 hours. It should be noted that
the global models do maintain a distinct remnant low through the
next several days, with near 30 kt winds persisting between the 
low and strong high pressure over the North Pacific. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 22.2N 141.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 22.4N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 22.7N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 23.1N 147.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 23.7N 149.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 24.5N 154.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z 25.5N 159.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z 27.0N 164.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jacobson
 
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