ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042016
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 15 2016
 
Celia continues to weaken this morning with very little in the way
of associated deep convection. The latest intensity fixes came in at
1.5/25 kt from PHFO while both JTWC and SAB indicate that the system
is too weak to classify due to the lack of deep convection. Thus we
have downgraded Celia to a 30 kt depression with this forecast
package with the strongest winds likely in the northern semicircle
of the system. 

The well defined low level center of Celia continues to move nearly
due west at around 11 kt. This westward motion is expected to
continue over the next several days as Celia will remain embedded
in moderate trade wind flow south of strong high pressure centered
far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. Only small fluctuations in
forward speed are expected during the next several days. The latest
track is very similar to the previous track and closely follows the
TVCE multi-model consensus. 
 
Celia has been moving over sea surface temperatures near 24C, and
is embedded within a stable airmass as well. Slightly warmer SSTs
around 25C lie along the forecast track, but SHIPS guidance and
global models depict a further increase in westerly vertical wind
shear during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should prevent
regeneration. The new intensity forecast weakens Celia to a remnant
low in about 12 hours. It should be noted that the global models do
maintain a distinct remnant low through the next several days, with
near 30 kt winds persisting between the low and strong high pressure
over the North Pacific.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 22.4N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 22.6N 144.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1800Z 23.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z 23.5N 148.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 23.9N 150.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 24.8N 155.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z 25.6N 160.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z 27.3N 166.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
NNNN