ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042016 500 PM HST FRI JUL 15 2016 Celia continues to weaken this afternoon with no deep convection associated with this system. The latest intensity fixes from PHFO and JTWC all indicated that the system is too weak to classify due to the lack of deep convection. Thus we have downgraded Celia to a 30 kt post tropical/remnant low with the strongest winds likely in the northern semicircle of the system. The well defined low level center of Celia continues to move nearly due west at around 11 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue over the next few days as Celia will remain embedded in moderate trade wind flow south of strong high pressure centered far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. By around days 4 and 5, the remnants of Celia are expected to gradually make a turn toward the northwest as the system will then lie far southwest of the highs center. Only small fluctuations in forward speed are expected during the next several days. The latest track is very similar to the previous track and closely follows the TVCE multi-model consensus. Celia has been moving over sea surface temperatures of around 24C, and is embedded within a stable airmass as well. Slightly warmer SSTs around 25C lie along the forecast track, but SHIPS guidance and global models depict a further increase in westerly vertical wind shear during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should prevent regeneration. It should be noted that the global models do maintain a distinct remnant low through the next several days, with near 30 kt winds persisting between the low and strong high pressure over the North Pacific. This will be the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Celia unless regeneration occurs. additional information on this system can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 22.4N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 16/1200Z 22.5N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 22.8N 147.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 23.2N 150.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 23.6N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 24.4N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 25.6N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z 27.3N 167.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN