ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016 1100 AM HST SUN JUL 24 2016 Due to vertical shear affecting Darby, most of the deep convection is mainly confined to the southeast quadrant with some isolated thunderstorms to the northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. The morning mission from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron's WC-130J found the center of Darby to be a bit north of the previous forecast track with maximum winds of 36 kt to the east of the center. Based on the aircraft recon data, the initial intensity of Darby has been maintained at 35 kt but perhaps barely so at this point. Additional passes through the system are ongoing and will hopefully provide a better idea of the consistency of the current trends. Darby is becoming a shallow system and is moving at 315/8 kt to the southwest of a lower and middle-level pressure ridge. The trusted dynamical objective aids were tightly clustered showing a northwestward track with the center of Darby passing near or over Oahu and Kauai later today or tonight, then continuing northwestward through 72 hours. The forecast track has been nudged north a bit due to the shift in the initial position, but keeps Darby moving northwestward through 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures should be decreasing along Darby's forecast track and vertical shear is expected to remain relatively strong through the next couple of days. This should result in steady weakening of the tropical cyclone. Thus, the forecast call for Darby to remain a tropical storm through today then become a tropical depression later tonight or Monday, followed by post-tropical remnant low status in about 72 hours. This is close to the previous forecast but is a bit lower than intensity consensus which holds on to tropical storm intensity a bit longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.7N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.7N 159.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 23.1N 160.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 24.1N 162.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 25.3N 163.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 28.6N 166.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 166.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN