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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
500 AM HST MON JUL 25 2016
 
Areas of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms continue to develop to
the north through east of Darby's poorly-defined center as it
interacts with a sharp trough aloft, and the system is in the
process of losing tropical characteristics.  The center passed very
close to the island of Kauai overnight, but appeared to remain
offshore before taking a turn toward the west-northwest.  Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates for this forecast cycle ranged from
1.5/25 kt from SAB, to 2.0/30 kt from HFO, to 2.5/35 kt from GTW. 
Based on a blend of those estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory is 30 kt. 
 
The initial motion vector is estimated to be 280/10 kt, as an
increasingly shallow and poorly-defined Darby is now being steered
by the low-level trade wind flow.  Strong southwesterly shear will
preclude re-organization, and Darby is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, then northwest, toward a weakness in the low-level
ridge to its north.  On this track, water temperatures will
gradually cool, and Darby is expected to soon become a post-tropical
remnant low, with dissipation expected shortly thereafter, close to
the LGEM guidance.  The updated forecast track was shifted to the
left of the previous due to the current motion, and lies close to
the EMXI. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 22.4N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 23.1N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 24.2N 163.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 25.5N 165.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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