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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102016
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 07 2016
 
Tropical Depression Ivette remains poorly organized as it enters
the Central Pacific, with all the deep convection displaced
well to the north of the exposed low-level circulation center
(LLCC). Dvorak current intensity estimates from SAB and PHFO both
show 2.0/30 kt, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is 1.8/28 kt.
A recent 08/0645Z ASCAT pass sampled the western portion of the
system, showing some 30 kt wind barbs to the northwest of the
LLCC. As a result, the initial intensity for this advisory will be
maintained at 30 kt. The initial motion based on a combination of
visible and infrared satellite loops over the past 6 to 12 hours has
been set at 270/08 kt. 

Ivette is becoming an increasingly shallow system due to persistent
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt, as diagnosed by
SHIPS and the UW-CIMSS shear product. As a result, the depression is
expected to largely be driven by the low-level trade wind flow as it
tracks off to the west or west-southwest during the next couple of
days. The CPHC official track forecast lies on the southern edge of
the guidance, and has been adjusted to the south of the previous
forecast.

The system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures near
27C during the next couple of days, while continuing to experience
very unfavorable southwesterly wind shear. While intermittent deep
convection may continue to flare up well to the north or northeast
of the LLCC, it seems unlikely that Ivette will be able to maintain
sufficient convective organization to be classified as a tropical
cyclone for much longer. Therefore, Ivette is forecast to become a
remnant low in 24 hours, with dissipation expected well to the east
of the Hawaiian Islands in 2 to 3 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 17.1N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 17.1N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 17.0N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1800Z 16.7N 145.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 16.0N 148.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Jacobson
 
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