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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102016
500 AM HST MON AUG 08 2016
 
Southwesterly vertical wind shear is taking its toll on Ivette, as
the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of the depression has now
been devoid of deep convection for over 12 hours. The latest fixes
from the satellite agencies indicate that the system has weakened,
with PHFO coming in with a Dvorak current intensity estimate of
1.5/25 kt, while SAB/JTWC now indicate that the system is too weak
to classify. Meanwhile, UW-CIMSS ADT shows a current intensity of
1.8/28 kt. Based on the 08/0645Z ASCAT pass showing a small area
of 30 kt wind barbs as it sampled the western semicircle of the
system, the intensity will be conservatively held at 30 kt for this
advisory. The initial motion has been set at 265/07 kt based on
satellite agency fixes and infrared satellite animations during the
past 6 to 12 hours.
 
Ivette will remain in a very hostile environment during the next
couple of days, with the current southwesterly wind shear of 20-30
kt forecast to continue. As a result, the shallow system is expected
to largely be driven by the low-level trade wind flow as it tracks
off to the west-southwest through dissipation. The CPHC official
track forecast remains on the southern edge of the guidance, and has
been adjusted slightly to the south of the previous forecast.
 
The system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures near
27C during the next couple of days, but the hostile vertical wind
shear is expected to win the battle with organized deep convection
unlikely to redevelop near the LLCC. As a result, Ivette will likely
become a remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 48
hours. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 17.0N 141.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.9N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/1200Z 16.6N 144.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Jacobson
 
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