ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016 Lester's eye has re-emerged from cloud cover within the past hour or so and deep convective cloud tops have begun to cool again, into the -66 to -71 degree Celsius range as of 1330 UTC. However, subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from the analysis centers continue to depict a slowly weakening system. These estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from JTWC and SAB. UW-CIMSS provided an ADT of 4.8/85 kt. Given Lester's very recent eye reappearance, continued good organization and CDO symmetry with little or no shear deformation, we will assign 90 kt for initial intensity. This represents slight weakening from last time, but is at the high end of available intensity estimates. Initial motion is 280/12 kt. However, some wobbling has accompanied the eye re-emergence. The steering mechanism remains unchanged as Lester continues to move generally westward along the southern flank of a strong subtropical ridge. Upper troughing expected to persist over and northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands should allow Lester to gradually gain latitude through the 5 day forecast period. Track guidance remains tightly packed, depicting a gradual turn toward the west northwest through day 2, then toward the northwest afterwards. UKMET and GFDL take Lester over the main Hawaiian Islands, but all other commonly-used guidance take Lester northeast of the Islands. HWRF is the right outlier, while ECMWF and GFS lie within the right half of the envelope. The forecast track closely follows the last one through 96 hours. The 120 hour point was adjusted to the northeast to keep the total forecast track aligned with TVCN consensus. Like most of the guidance, this track takes Lester northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. That said, it would take only a small leftward shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect the Islands. This possibility must be considered when making preparation plans over the next couple of days. All intensity guidance show Lester weakening through day 5, but at different rates. Like last time, the global models want to keep Lester relative strong, with GFS depicting a hurricane at day 5. In contrast, SHIPS degrades Lester to a tropical storm at 48 hours. We have followed IVCN consensus through 96 hours, then continued the weakening trend after that as IVCN levels off. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.4N 143.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.8N 145.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.4N 148.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 20.2N 150.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.0N 153.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 22.9N 158.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 28.7N 166.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell NNNN