ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 1100 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016 The eye of Hurricane Lester has become better defined this morning, and deep convection has intensified around the center as Lester has moved over a small pocket of slightly warmer SSTs of about 27C. This has occurred in spite of modest southeasterly wind shear of 10 kt, according to UW CIMSS, that has restricted outflow somewhat in the eastern portion of the system. Dvorak current intensity estimates are all up and range from 5.0 out of SAB to 5.5 from HFO, JTWC, and CIMSS ADT. A recent CIMSS SATCON estimate came in at 97 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation and these data, the current intensity will be raised to 95 kt for this advisory, and this may be conservative. The re-emergence of the eye has led to improved confidence in the center location, and the initial motion is set at 275/11 kt. Lester is moving westward along the southern flank of a deep anticyclone parked to the north, while an upper level trough sits over Hawaii. This upper level trough will produce a weakness in the steering ridge that is expected to cause Lester to make a gradual west-northwestward turn during the next three days and a turn to the northwest thereafter. The official track has changed little from the prior advisory and runs near the TVCN and operational GFS along the middle of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF remaining to the right of the official track. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Big Island (Hawaii County) and Maui County. It would take only a small leftward shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect the state, and watches could be expanded to other islands later today or tonight. This possibility must be considered when making preparations over the next couple of days. The recent intensification trend is expected to be short lived. Along the forecast track, Lester will be over slightly cooler SSTs later today or this evening and beyond, and SHIPS forecasts modest vertical wind shear to persist. This is expected to lead to gradual weakening. Given recent trends, the rate of weakening in the official forecast has been slowed and is in line with the SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN through Saturday, then near the slightly higher IVCN beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.4N 144.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.9N 146.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.6N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 151.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 154.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 23.6N 159.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 26.2N 164.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 30.0N 167.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN