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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016
 
Latest satellite images show that Lester is a strong and
well-organized hurricane lacking banding features, with a ring of
strong convection completely encircling the eye. Reconnaissance
aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaisance Squadron has been
flying through Lester this evening, and found maximum flight level
winds near 110 kt, and a central pressure near 963 mb, supporting an
initial intensity of 100 kt for this advisory. For comparison, all
the fix agencies derived a data-T of 5.0/90 kt and a current
intensity of 6.0/115 kt.

The intitial motion vector for this advisory is 285/12 kt, with
Lester tracking toward the west-northwest to along the southern
flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Meanwhile, in the upper levels,
Lester lies squarely between a high-level anticyclone to the east
and a persistent trough near Hawaii, in an area of southerly flow
aloft. The tightly-clustered 00Z model guidance had the benefit of
extra data supplied by a G-V synoptic surveillance mission conducted
earlier today, and remains consistent with previous runs and the
ongoing forecast. The official track forecast is essentially an
update of the previous, and lies close to the TVCN and GFEX, but to
the right of the GFS ensemble mean. 

The updated intensity forecast is also very close to the previous,
and the forecast philosophy remains the same. Lester has likely
peaked in intensity, and all the intensity guidance depicts a
weakening trend through the forecast period. Initially, some of
that weakening may be due to a temporary decrease in water
temperatures, as Lester is currently tracking over the area where
Hurricane Madeline rapidly intensified earlier this week. Overall,
the weakening trend is based on persistent and gradually increasing
vertical wind shear supplied by the high-level trough near Hawaii,
although significantly decreasing water temperatures on day 4 and 5
will contribute as well. The official intensity forecast closely
follows the LGEM and SHIPS guidance. 

A Hurricane Watch remains in place for portions of the main Hawaiian
Islands as the official forecast brings the system very close to the
islands. Although forecast model guidance has been stable for the
past couple of days, and the official forecast keeps the center
of Lester offshore of the islands, a small deviation from the
official forecast track could bring profound impacts to Hawaii.
Users are also reminded that impacts from hurricanes can occur well
away from the center. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 19.1N 147.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.7N 149.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.7N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 22.9N 157.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 25.8N 162.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 29.9N 165.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 34.5N 167.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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