ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 500 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016 Latest satellite images show that Lester remains a strong and well- organized hurricane, with a solid ring of cold cloud tops surrounding the eye. However, the eye has been shrinking, and eye temperatures have cooled somewhat since the previous advisory, while the outflow has diminished in the southern semicircle. These observations indicate that Lester has weakened somewhat overnight. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW ranged from 5.5/102 kt to 6.0/115 kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT yielded 5.3/97 kt. As Lester appears weaker since reconnaisance aircraft last determined the intensity was near 100 kt, the current intensity for this advisory is set to 95 kt. Another reconnaisance flight into Lester is planned for later this morning, while the G-V will conduct one more synoptic surveillance mission later today before heading back to the mainland. The intitial motion vector for this advisory is 295/12 kt, and Lester has been tracking to the right of the previous forecast track. The track guidance is once again tightly clustered this with Lester expected to track toward the west-northwest on the southern flank of a low- to mid-level ridge over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest and north at the end of the forecast is expected as Lester nears the southwestern and western periphery of the ridge. On day 5, Lester will be close to a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. While the spread in the guidance suite increases at that time, the earlier periods of the forecast feature tightly clustered guidance. The updated forecast is essentially an update of the previous, and lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. The updated forecast track has Lester passing the latitude of the Big Island this morning, allowing the hurricane watch to be discontinued. The updated intensity forecast indicates that Lester has reached peak intensity, and will steadily weaken through the forecast period, as depicted by nearly all the intensity guidance. Initially, some of that weakening may be due to a temporary decrease in water temperatures, as Lester is currently tracking over the area where Hurricane Madeline rapidly intensified earlier this week. Overall, the weakening trend is based on persistent and gradually increasing vertical wind shear supplied by the flow between a high-level trough near Hawaii and a high-level anticyclone to the east, although significantly decreasing water temperatures on day 4 and 5 will contribute as well. The official intensity forecast closely follows the LGEM and SHIPS guidance. A Hurricane Watch remains in place for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands as the official forecast still brings the system close to the islands. Although forecast model guidance has been stable for the past couple of days, and the official forecast keeps the center of Lester northeast of the islands, a westward deviation from the official forecast track could bring profound impacts to Hawaii. In addition, users are also reminded that impacts from hurricanes can occur well away from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.7N 148.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 20.4N 150.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 21.4N 152.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 22.6N 155.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 23.9N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 27.0N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 31.5N 166.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 37.0N 166.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN