ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 1100 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016 The satellite presentation of Lester is slowly degrading as cloud tops around the eye continue to warm. A U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft reported maximum winds of 88 kt from the SFMR in the northwest quadrant, and Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from SAB to 5.5/102 kt out of HFO and JTWC. Given these data, the initial intensity is set at 90 kt. The U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft will return to sample Lester this evening, and the G-V is currently conducting one more synoptic surveillance mission before heading back to the mainland. Lester continues to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion is set at 290/13 kt. The cyclone remains to the south of a low to mid level ridge and has rounded the upper level ridge axis. Lester is expected to continue along a general west-northwestward track through Saturday as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands, followed by a turn toward the northwest later Sunday and Monday as the system increasingly feels the effects of an upper level trough to the west. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Lester is forecast to interact with a deep North Pacific trough, causing a turn toward the north. The official track has changed little from the last advisory. During the time when Lester will be passing near the main Hawaiian Islands, the forecast remains near the GFEX in the middle of a rather tightly clustered reliable guidance. Beyond Sunday, the guidance spread increases, though all show a northward turn. Lester is expected to gradually weaken through the next five days. Both CIMSS and SHIPS analyze southerly vertical wind shear affecting Lester, with the main impact appearing to be a restriction of the outflow in the southern flank. In addition, Lester is moving over SSTs of almost 26C, which is more than a degree cooler than this time yesterday. The combination of these factors has led to the gradual weakening of Lester. During the next couple of days, vertical wind shear is expected to hold, if not strengthen slightly, while SSTs change little. As a result, weakening is forecast to continue. The intensity forecast closely follows SHIPS and LGEM and is slightly below IVCN beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 20.1N 149.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.8N 151.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.8N 154.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 23.1N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 24.5N 159.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.0N 163.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 31.4N 166.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 34.7N 167.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN