ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 500 PM HST FRI SEP 02 2016 Deep convection has increased around the center this afternoon, although the eye has become cloud filled during the past couple of hours. Southerly vertical wind shear has increased slightly to 12 to 21 kt, according to the SHIP and CIMSS, respectively, and an AMSR2 pass at 2214 UTC suggested that Lester is tilting northward with height. Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from SAB and CIMSS ADT to 5.5/102 kt out of HFO and JTWC. Given data from an earlier aircraft reconnaissance mission, the initial intensity will be held at 90 kt, which could be generous. U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will begin conducting missions into Lester every six hours beginning this evening. Lester continues to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion is set at 290/12 kt. The cyclone remains to the south of a low to mid level ridge and is between an upper level anticyclone to the east and an upper level trough near 160W. Lester is expected to continue along a general west-northwestward track through Saturday as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest is forecast later Sunday and Monday as the system increasingly feels the effects of the upper level trough to the west. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Lester will interact with a deep North Pacific trough, causing a turn toward the north and an eventual extra-tropical transition. The official track has changed little from the last advisory. During the time when Lester will be passing near the main Hawaiian Islands, the forecast remains near a rather tight cluster including the GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, GFDL, and TVCN. Beyond Sunday, the guidance spread increases, though all show a gradual northward turn. A gradual weakening trend is expected through the next four days. Lester's intensity remained nearly unchanged this afternoon as it moved over slightly warmer SSTs of around 26.5C and a well defined outflow channel remained to the north. An increase in vertical wind shear is expected to produce gradual weakening during the next three days, followed by little change as Lester begins an extra-tropical transition on day four or five. The intensity forecast has been changed little from the prior advisory and closely follows SHIPS and LGEM, keeping Lester a hurricane as it passes near the state. A Hurricane Watch remains in place for Oahu and Maui County, as the official forecast still brings the system close to portions of the main Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has been stable for the past couple of days, and probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane conditions have been dropping slowly. However, any westward deviation from the official forecast track could bring profound impacts to Hawaii, and users are reminded that impacts from hurricanes can occur well away from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.5N 151.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.3N 153.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 22.5N 155.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 23.8N 158.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 25.4N 160.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 28.9N 164.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 32.8N 166.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 37.0N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN