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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 02 2016
 
The satellite presentation of Lester has degraded since the
previous advisory, with the eye no longer visible. U.S. Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was very helpful in determining the center
location of the system as it becomes increasingly tilted due
to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The hurricane hunters
found SFMR winds of 82 knots in the southwest quadrant and 79 knots
in the northwest quadrant. Due to sampling considerations, the
initial intensity will be set to 85 knots for this advisory.  

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest at 13 knots. This
motion is expected to continue through Saturday as Lester continues
to be steered by deep layered ridging to the north of the system and
an upper level trough near 160W. Beginning Saturday night, Lester
will begin to round the southwestern periphery of the deep layered
ridge, while an upper level trough approaches Midway Atoll. As a
result, Lester should change course to a more northwesterly track
through 72 hours, then move toward the north through 120 hours in
between the deep layered ridge to the east and the upper trough to
the west. The official CPHC track is very close to the previous
advisory through 72 hours and then to the right of the previous
track through 120 hours. This adjustment to the track is a result of
a guidance shift and is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN
and GFS/ECMWF consensus (GFEX). 

Lester is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple days
it begins to experience increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear
while moving over marginal 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures. The
official intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and is closely aligned with SHIPS and IVCN guidance. The forecast
calls for Lester to weaken into a Tropical Storm on Sunday, with an
extra-tropical transition expected to occur early next week.
 
A Hurricane Watch remains in place for Oahu and Maui County, as the
official forecast still brings the system close to portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has been stable for the past
couple of days, and probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane
conditions have been dropping slowly. If this trend continues, the
Hurricane Watch may be cancelled with the next advisory package.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 21.2N 152.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 21.9N 154.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 23.2N 157.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 24.7N 159.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 26.5N 161.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 30.2N 165.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 35.0N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 39.3N 163.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard
 
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