ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 500 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016 Lester is becoming increasingly influenced by southwesterly vertical wind shear as evident in satellite animations, making the low level circulation center (LLCC) difficult to find. Thankfully, the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft sampled the system through much of the night, and was very helpful in finding the LLCC of Lester. The hurricane hunters found multiple areas with SFMR winds of 80+ knots when flying the system. Additionally, a 96 knot flight level wind which reduces to 86 knots at the surface was found at 03/0925Z. Therefore the initial intensity will be set at 85 knots for the 15Z advisory. This agrees well with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, which ranged from 4.5/77 knots to 5.0/90 knots. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest at 14 knots. This motion is expected to continue today as Lester continues to be steered by a deep layered ridging to the north of the system and an upper level trough near 160W. Lester will begin to round the southwestern periphery of the deep layered ridge tonight, while an upper level trough approaches Midway Atoll. As a result, Lester should change course to a more northwesterly track through 72 hours, then move toward the north and northeast through 120 hours in between the deep layered ridge to the east and the upper trough moving in from the west. The official CPHC track is very close to the previous advisory through 72 hours, with an increase in forward speed to more closely match the latest model guidance beyond 72 hours. Lester is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple days due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear as it moves over marginal 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The official intensity forecast is nearly a duplicate of the previous advisory, and is closely aligned with the latest SHIPS and IVCN guidance. The forecast calls for Lester to weaken into a tropical storm on Sunday or Sunday night, with an extratropical transition expected early next week as Lester becomes absorbed into a large mid-latitude trough and moves over increasingly unfavorable SSTs. The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for all of the Hawaiian Islands as Lester continues to closely follow a tightly clustered suite of model guidance, just to the north of the state. Despite the expectation that hurricane or tropical storm conditions will remain just north of the Islands, large and dangerous surf is expected through the weekend. Refer to the latest coastal hazard message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 21.8N 153.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 22.7N 155.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 24.2N 158.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 26.1N 161.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 28.2N 163.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 32.4N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 37.0N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 43.5N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard NNNN