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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016
 
Lester continues to suffer from 15 to 20 kt of SHIPS-depicted
vertical wind shear, clearly seen in the half degree tilt with
height toward the north northeast between the 37 GHz and 85 GHz
images on the 1635 UTC SSMIS pass. There is no eye feature, but
deep convection wraps through the northwest semicircle. The LLCC was
difficult to find via enhanced infrared imagery, but was easier to
find in microwave imagery. U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
provided crucial help with LLCC location, system intensity and wind
structure. An 83 kt flight level wind maximum was found in the
northeast quadrant, reducing to 75 kt at sea level. This agrees with
the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 4.5/77 kt from JTWC.
PHFO and SAB provided intensity estimates of 4.0/65 kt, while
UW-CIMSS provided and ADT of 4.1/67 kt. We will assign Lester an
initial intensity of 75 kt based on aircraft data and the JTWC
estimate.

Initial motion is 295/15 kt as Lester moves along the southwest
flank of the subtropical ridge. An upper trough over and just west
of the main Hawaiian Islands will allow Lester to gain latitide
through the forecast period, and the forecast track around the
western edge of ridge will cause Lester to recurve back to the
northeast beyond day 3 as strong westerly steering takes hold. Track
guidance is tightly packed depicting this very scenario, which keeps
this system northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. The forecast
track closely follows the previous one as we match HWRF, GFDL and
TVCN consensus. The Ocean Prediction Center coordinated with the
days 4 and 5 positions.

Interestingly, intensity guidance is rather tightly packed,
depicting weakening through day 5. The global models weaken Lester
more slowly than SHIPS and LGEM, but the total differences between
models is quite small. The intensity forecast follows the previous
one, roughly tracing the IVCN consensus curve. 

Large and dangerous surf is expected through the weekend across
exposed shores in the main Hawaiian Islands. Refer to the latest
coastal hazard message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather Service in
Honolulu, HI for additional information.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 22.4N 155.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 23.4N 157.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 25.1N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 27.0N 162.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 29.1N 164.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 33.4N 165.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 39.1N 163.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 46.3N 155.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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