ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 04 2016
 
Deep convection has once again formed near the low level center
over the past several hours. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates range from 2.5/35 kt from SAB, 3.0/45 kt from
JTWC and 3.5/55 kt from PHFO. Based on the current appearance of
Lester in satellite imagery and these intensity estimates, we have
kept the intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 315/15 kt. The latest track
guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a
northwestward path through about 36 hours, followed by gradual
slowing and a northward turn on day 2. Lester is then then forecast
to accelerate to northeast on days 3 through 5. Lester is currently
being steered by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N.
However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper level trough
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands is causing Lester to move
northwestward. The latest forecast track closely follows the
previous one, and lies close to consensus and reliable model
guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center coordinated the 4 and 5 day
positions.

Strong southwesterly wind shear continues over the system with ships
guidance indicating 24 kt while UW-CIMSS estimate is 33 kt. All
intensity guidance shows very slow, but steady weakening through day
5 as Lester passes over cooler water and strong southwesterly shear
continues to impact the system. The latest intensity forecast
indicates slight weakening, followed by nearly steady state through
48 hours, when Lester is forecast to transition to an extra-tropical
gale low over the North Pacific in around 72 hours. Lester is then
forecast gradually weaken on days 4 and 5 but still remain a gale
force low. This intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS
and the IVCN consensus guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 25.7N 160.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 27.3N 161.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 29.4N 164.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 31.3N 165.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 33.0N 165.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 36.9N 165.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1800Z 44.4N 158.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1800Z 50.3N 141.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
NNNN