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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
500 PM HST SUN SEP 04 2016
 
The satellite representation of Lester is less impressive than
earlier today with the low level center once again removed from the 
deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates range from 3.0/45 kt PHFO and 2.5/35 kt from
SAB and JTWC. Based on the current appearance of Lester in satellite
imagery and these intensity estimates, we have lowered the intensity
to 45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 315/15 kt. The latest track
guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a
northwestward path through about 24 hours, followed by gradual
slowing and a northward turn during the 36 to 48 hour time frame.
Lester is then forecast to accelerate northeast on days 3 through
5. Lester is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge north
of latitude 30N. However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper
level trough northwest of system is causing Lester to move
northwestward. The latest forecast track closely follows the
previous one, and lies close to consensus and reliable model
guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center was coordinated with for the
72, 96 and 120 hour positions.
 
Strong southwesterly wind shear continues over the system with the
UW-CIMSS estimate at 33 kt while the SHIPS estimate is 23 kt. Most
of the intensity guidance indicates that the system will remain near
or at its current intensity through 48 hours with slow weakening on
days 3 through 5 mainly due to cooler water and extra-tropical
transition. The latest intensity forecast follows along with this,
keeping the system at it present intensity through 48 hours. Beyond
48 hours, Lester is forecast to transition to an extra-tropical gale
low over the North Pacific in around 72 hours. Lester is then
forecast to gradually weaken on days 4 and 5. This intensity
forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS and the IVCN consensus
guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 26.6N 161.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 28.2N 163.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 30.2N 164.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 32.0N 165.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 33.9N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 39.4N 163.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0000Z 46.4N 153.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z 52.0N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
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