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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 AM HST MON SEP 05 2016
 
The low level center of Lester remains exposed to the south of the
deepest convection and continues moving toward the north-northwest
over the open waters of the North Pacific. The latest subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 2.5/35 kt from PHFO
and JTWC, while SAB cold not classify it as a tropical cyclone.
Since the system is beginning to undergo extratropical transition,
we have held the system's intensity at 50 kt with this advisory as
Dvorak estimates tend to under estimate the strength of systems
during extratropical transition.
 
The initial motion for this advisory is 335/11 kt. The latest track
guidance remains tightly clustered, with Lester moving at a slightly
slower speed along a north-northwestward path through the next 12
hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north during the 24 to 36
hour time frame. Lester is then forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast within the 36 through 48 hour time frame, followed
by acceleration toward the northeast through day 3. The system is
expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical system by day 4.
Lester is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge located
east-northeast of the system and an upper level trough located to
the west. The latest forecast track closely follows the previous
one, and lies close to the global models as well as the TVCN
consensus guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center provided input for
the 48 and 72 hour positions.

Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone
will remain near its current intensity through 48 hours, with slow
weakening by day 3. The latest intensity forecast follows along with
this, keeping the system at it present intensity through day 2.
Beyond 36 hours, Lester is forecast to transition to an
extra-tropical storm low over the North Pacific Ocean in around 48
hours. This intensity forecast closely follows nearly all of the
global models, as well as SHIPS and IVCN consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 29.8N 164.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 31.4N 165.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 33.4N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 35.9N 165.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 38.7N 164.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/1800Z 46.4N 155.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
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