ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016 500 PM HST MON SEP 05 2016 The low level center of Lester remains exposed to the south of the deepest convection and continues moving toward the north-northwest over the open waters of the North Pacific. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 2.5/35 kt from PHFO and 1.5/25 kt from JTWC. Since the system is beginning to undergo extratropical transition, we have held the system's intensity at 50 kt with this advisory as Dvorak intensity estimates tend to under estimate the strength of systems during extratropical transition. The initial motion for this advisory is 340/11 kt. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered, with Lester moving at a slightly slower speed along a north-northwestward path through the next 12 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. Lester is then forecast to turn toward the north-northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday, followed by acceleration toward the northeast beyond 48 hours. The system is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical system by around 72 hours. Lester is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge located east of the system and an upper level trough located to the west. The latest forecast track closely follows the previous one, and lies close to the global models as well as the TVCN consensus guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center provided input for the 48 and 72 hour positions. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone will remain near its current intensity through 48 hours, with slow weakening beyond that. The latest intensity forecast follows along with this, keeping the system at it present intensity through day 2. Beyond 36 hours, Lester is forecast to transition to an extratropical storm low over the North Pacific Ocean. This intensity forecast closely follows nearly all of the global models, as well as SHIPS and IVCN consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 30.8N 165.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 32.3N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 34.3N 166.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 36.8N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 40.1N 163.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 48.6N 151.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN