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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 06 2016
 
Lester continues to exhibit a sheared satellite presentation
this evening, with a small area of deep convection displaced to the
southeast of the exposed low-level circulation center. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from PHFO came in with 2.5/35
kt, while the Dvorak estimates from SAB/JTWC were both below
tropical storm intensity. However, the initial intensity will be
maintained at 45 kt for this advisory, based primarily on the late
Tuesday morning ASCAT passes which sampled a large area of 35-40+ kt
winds in the eastern semicircle. 

Lester has turned to the north-northeast and begun to accelerate
during the past several hours, as it continues to move between a
deep-layer ridge to the east and an approaching mid-level trough to
the northwest. The initial motion estimate for this advisory is
015/14 kt. There is no significant change to the forecast
philosophy, with Lester expected to accelerate rapidly to the
northeast during the next 36 hours as it rounds the western
periphery of the ridge and becomes embedded in increasingly deep
southwesterly flow. The official track forecast is aided by guidance
from the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), and most closely resembles
the latest GFS forecast track.
 
Also based on OPC and global model guidance, the transition to an
extratropical low is expected to be complete within the next 18 to
24 hours. Although the wind field will be undergoing some changes
as this transition occurs, little change in intensity is expected.
Lester will exist as a distinct extratropical low for only a brief
time period, as it is forecast to dissipate on Thursday while
becoming absorbed into the circulation of a larger extratropical low
near the Gulf of Alaska. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 36.5N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 38.8N 164.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 43.0N 161.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/1800Z 48.5N 154.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jacobson
 
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