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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
500 AM HST WED SEP 07 2016
 
Lester continues to exhibit a sheared satellite presentation,
with a small area of deep convection displaced well to the southeast
of the exposed low-level circulation center. Dvorak subjective
current intensity estimates have generally decreased during the
night due to the lack of deep convection near the center. An
overnight ASCAT pass partially sampled the wind field of Lester, and
found an area of 35-40 kt winds just to the east of the center.
However, this pass did not sample the entire eastern semicircle
where slightly higher winds might be present, and have maintained an
initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Lester has continued on a steady north-northeast track during the
night, as it moves between a deep-layer ridge to the east and an
approaching mid-level trough to the west. The initial motion
estimate for this advisory is 015/13 kt. There is no significant
change to the forecast philosophy, with Lester expected to
accelerate rapidly to the northeast today and tonight as it becomes
embedded in deep southwesterly flow associated with the mid-level
trough. The official track forecast is aided by guidance from the
Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), and represents a compromise between
the latest GFS and ECMWF model tracks.
 
Also based on OPC and global model guidance, the transition to an
extratropical low is expected to be complete within the next 12 to
18 hours. Although the wind field will be undergoing some changes
as this transition occurs, little change in intensity is expected.
Lester will exist as a distinct extratropical low for only a brief
time period, as it is forecast to dissipate on Thursday while
becoming absorbed into the circulation of a larger extratropical low
near the Gulf of Alaska. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 37.6N 165.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 40.6N 163.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/1200Z 46.0N 158.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jacobson
 
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