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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 AM HST WED SEP 07 2016
 
Although latest satellite images show new convection developing 
southeast of Lester's low-level circulation center, increasing
southwestery shear and dramatically colder waters along the forecast
track will preclude Lester from regaining tropical characteristics. 
While the transition to an extratropical low may take another 6 to
12 hours to complete, deep convection has been absent over the
center of Lester for sufficiently long that the system can safely be
deemed post-tropical. Therefore, this will be the final advisory
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for Lester. Further
information can be found in High Seas bulletins issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC.
 
The initial motion for this advisory is 025/22 kt. The post-tropical
cyclone will continue to accelerate toward the northeast over the
next 12 to 24 hours as it becomes further embedded within a 
deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with an approaching
mid-latitude shortwave trough. A track toward the northeast will
persist until the system dissipates, which is expected by 36 hours,
when the system becomes absorbed into the circulation of a larger
extratropical low near the Gulf of Alaska. Although Lester is no
longer deemed to be a tropical cyclone, gale-force winds are still
occurring in the eastern semicircle, and some increase in wind speed
is expected as as Lester transitions to an extratropical low. The
updated track and intensity forecast is largely based on guidance
from the Ocean Prediction Center, which is based on a blend of the
GFS, ECMWF and UKMET solutions.
  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 39.1N 164.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0600Z 42.6N 161.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/1800Z 48.0N 155.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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