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TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
500 AM HST SUN AUG 28 2016
 
The cloud pattern around Madeline has not improved over the past 12
hours and the amount of cold overcast has changed little. An ASCAT
pass at 28/0706 UTC showed winds less than 40 kt. I have set the
initial intensity at 45 kt. I do not believe this represents a
weakening of the cyclone. It seems more likely that the cyclone has
been weaker than analyzed over the past 24 hours. I have adjusted
the intensity of the past positions down to 45 kt. 

The cyclone continues to track along the southwest edge of the
subtropical ridge. A narrow ridge aloft separates Madeline from
a trough to the northwest. The global models are in good agreement
showing the trough lifting out to the northeast in 3 days as a ridge
builds along 160W. As that ridge builds, Madeline should curve
toward the west, then slightly south of west. The current track
is very slightly slower and farther south than the previous
forecast.

Madeline is expected to be moving through an area with low vertical
wind shear over the next 2 days and sea surface temperatures, SST,
will remain warm. Conditions should be favorable for some
intensification during that period. After that, shear is expected
to increase and the environment is expected to become drier, so
weakening is expected. This forecast is very similar to the previous
one, but the intensity has been kept a bit lower, based on the
current poor organization on satellite imagery.

The confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3, so it is
too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the
Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.  It is important to
remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
central Pacific tropical cyclones are around 185 and 250 miles,
respectively.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 16.3N 140.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 17.2N 141.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.3N 143.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.9N 145.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 19.4N 146.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 19.4N 150.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 19.0N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 18.0N 159.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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