ZCZC HFOTCDCP5 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 500 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016 Madeline's cloud-covered eye re-emerged by 1200 UTC with a cooler-topped and increasingly well-formed eyewall. Organization continues to improve, with little or no shear deformation present. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from SAB and PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from JTWC, while UW-CIMSS provided an estimated intensity of 81 kt. We will compromise and assign Madeline an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory cycle, representing continued rapid intensification of this system. The steering mechanism for Madeline has not changed since last evening. An upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to allow Madeline to gain latitude as this system tracks along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge. Global models show this upper trough will lift northward through 72 hours, gradually allowing the ridge to steer Madeline along a more westerly to west-southwesterly track. This appears to be happening already, with 6 hour motion noticeably to the left of the west-northwest 12 hour motion. By 72 hours, the upper trough is forecast to dig southward again, prompting most track guidance toward westerly to west-northwesterly motion again on days 4 and 5. Track guidance remains tightly packed through 72 hours, depicting a shallow S-curve westward then west southwestward through 72 hours, followed by the gradual turn westward to west northwestward afterwards. The forecast track follows the previous one closely, but was altered slightly south at 72 hours, then slightly north at 96 and 120 hours to more closely follow consensus guidance. While SHIPS probability for rapid intensification remains over 30 percent through 24 hours, most intensity guidance shows more modest strengthening by day 2. We cap Madeline at 90 kt at 12 and 24 hours, then introduce gradual weakening through day 5 as shear increases. Our intensity forecast closely follows IVCN consensus through day 2, then depicts a weakening rate similar to that shown by LGEM afterwards. The forecast track depicts Madeline passing just south of the Big Island of Hawaii as a hurricane on day 3. Average day 3 forecast track error is around 130 miles, so this would be a good time to remind users to consider the error cone associated with each forecast and not just the black line depicting the forecast track of the system center. Tropical systems can be quite large and may affect areas far from the system center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.2N 144.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 18.6N 146.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 19.0N 147.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 19.0N 149.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 151.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 18.1N 155.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.7N 160.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.6N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell NNNN