ZCZC HFOTCDCP5 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016 Madeline has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, with infrared satellite images depicting a cloud-filled eye encircled by a solid ring of deep convection. Except for some modest restriction in the southern semicircle, upper-level outflow is otherwise unimpeded and the cyclone has taken on an increasingly symmetric appearance. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW also indicate a significant increase in intensity, with latest estimates indicating 5.5/103 kt. ADT from UW-CIMSS indicates an intensity near 100 kt, while SATCON is near 90 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 100 kt, making Madeline a major (category 3) hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaisance Squadron are slated to begin flying investigative flights into Madeline tomorrow morning, which will give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and size. The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 300/09 kt, with Madeline currently on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A deep-layer trough lies far north of Madeline, with the system generally tracking toward a weakness in the ridge caused by this trough. This is expected to be the case for the next 24 to 36 hours, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid-level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone. Guidance remain consistent in tracking Madeline toward the west-northwest in the short term, with a turn toward the west anticipated to begin on Tuesday as heights build. The updated track forecast is close to the previous and the GFEX through 72 hours, and thereafter lies to the right of the previous, close to the latest multi-model consensus TVCN. While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline Tuesday and Tuesday night, introducing increasing southwesterly shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend after tonight. In the mean time, relatively light shear and warm SSTs may allow Madeline to intensify a little more, as indicated by SHIPS guidance. The updated intensity forecast follows the trends presented by the previous, after accounting for the higher than expected initial intensity. The latest track and intensity forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County. Depending on the evolution of the forecast, a watch may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 18.6N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 19.0N 146.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 148.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 18.0N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 18.4N 160.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN