ZCZC HFOTCDCP5 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 500 PM HST TUE AUG 30 2016 Under the presence of continued vertical wind shear, the satellite presentation of Madeline has continued to gradually degrade today, as an eye is no longer present. While Dvorak final T numbers continue to drop, current intensity estimates range from 5.5/102 kt at HFO to 5.0/90 kt out of JTWC and SAB, and CIMSS ADT has fallen below 80 kt. Since Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported stronger than expected winds earlier in the day, the current intensity will be set at 95 kt for this advisory. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will fly another mission in Madeline this evening. The initial motion for this advisory remains due west at 270/09 kt. Madeline continues to move westward along the southern edge of a low to mid level ridge, while a shallow upper level trough continues to dig toward the hurricane from the northwest. The ridge will keep Madeline on a westward-moving track into the evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-southwest tonight and Wednesday as the mid level ridge strengthens to the north and northwest and the upper level trough imparts northwesterly winds in the high levels of the cyclone. This track will take the center of Madeline dangerously close to the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) late Wednesday into Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning remains in place for the Big Island, given the very close approach of Madeline and uncertainty in the track forecast. On Friday Madeline is forecast to turn back toward the west as the upper level trough digs southward over Hawaii. The official forecast track has changed little from the prior advisory and is near TVCN, which lies in the middle of a rather tightly clustered reliable guidance envelope during the next three days. The guidance envelope spreads beyond day three, while the GFDL remains the northern outlier through the entire forecast duration. Madeline is expected to gradually weaken through the next four days as the upper level trough digs southward and continues to impart vertical wind shear. UW CIMSS estimates current vertical wind shear from the west-southwest at 14 kt, and SHIPS forecasts shear to gradually increase during the next 24 to 36 hours before relaxing on Friday. The official intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening during this time that follows the trends of SHIPS and IVCN, though at a slightly slower rate of weakening than the guidance through Friday. Although it will be weakening, Madeline is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near the Big Island of Hawaii late Wednesday into early Thursday. We would like to remind everyone that hazards associated with hurricanes can extend well away from the center, and you should not focus too closely on the exact forecast track, as small changes can lead to differences in impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 19.3N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 151.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 18.7N 153.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.3N 155.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.1N 157.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.2N 162.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.7N 168.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.0N 173.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN