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TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
500 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016

Since the last advisory package, the satellite presentation of
Madeline has deteriorated. Remaining deep convection is within a
small cluster over the circulation center. Subjective Dvorak fixes
were 3.0/45 kt from PHFO and 2.5/35 kt from SAB. The CIMSS ADT
showed 33 kt. There is also the possibility that there may no
longer be a distinct low level center based on the 2042 UTC ASCAT
pass showing only a trough in the wind field with 30 kt winds to the
north. Analysis of the ASCAT ambiguity and NRCS data also suggest
the possibility of a trough. If there is still a low level center,
it is quite small. This advisory is based on the conservative
assumption that a low level center still exists and has an initial
intensity of 35 kt.
 
Despite the warm sea surface temperatures, the moderate to strong
vertical shear and the relatively dry mid-level air to west and
north is expected to be too much to overcome. The GFS, ECMWF, and
HWRF project continued weakening toward dissipation while the LGEM
and DSHP maintain Madeline as a tropical depression through the
forecast period. The forecast for this advisory is more in line
with the global models and HWRF, calling for Madeline to become a
tropical depression tonight then a post-tropical remnant low in
about 2 days if not sooner.

The presumed center of Madeline is moving toward the west, 270
degrees, at 11 kt. The cyclone will continue to be steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Most of the main dynamical aids remain tightly clustered
around a westward track over the next 2 to 3 days, with the GFDL
stubbornly sticking out as a northern outlier. The current forecast
keeps a weakening Madeline on a general westward path in line with
the main dynamical aids cluster and the previous forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 16.6N 159.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.5N 160.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 16.4N 163.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.5N 165.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 16.7N 168.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
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