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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192016
500 PM HST MON SEP 26 2016
 
The satellite presentation has shown little sign of improving
organization today as the depression remains embedded within a
roughly west to east oriented trough. Deep convection decreased
since last night and has yet to consolidate near the center, though
the circulation is fairly well defined on visible imagery. Dvorak
current intensity estimates range from a 1.5 from JTWC to a 2.0 out
of HFO and SAB to 2.5 from TAFB. An ASCAT pass from this morning
clipped the western portion of the circulation and showed some 30 kt
wind retrievals within 30 nm of the center. Given this data and the
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

Some intensification is expected during the next day or so as the
system remains over 28C SSTs. A diffluent westerly flow aloft will
provide outflow, though it will also produce some vertical wind
shear, and the system will remain embedded within a roughly west to
east oriented trough in the short term. These factors should allow
for some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Vertical
wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday as the system moves
closer to an upper level trough, leading to rapid weakening to a
remnant low by Friday. The intensity forecast closely follows the
prior advisory and is close to SHIPS.

A slow northward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
The system remains embedded within a west to east oriented trough,
and although surface high pressure is parked far to the north near
34N, a weak mid to upper level trough sits just to the north of the
cyclone. The resulting weak steering flow is expected to produce a
north to north-northeastward drift during the next couple of days.
The weakening and increasingly shallow system will likely then make
a gradual turn toward the west on Thursday through Saturday as the
low level trade wind flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism.
The track forecast was changed little from the prior advisory and
runs through the middle of the guidance envelope close to the GFEX.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 11.8N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 12.3N 140.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 13.0N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 13.9N 139.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 14.8N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 16.1N 139.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 16.9N 141.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 17.0N 145.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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