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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192016
1100 PM HST THU SEP 29 2016
 
The last significant deep convection around Ulika dissipated this
morning. Only a low-level circulation center now remains. The
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from HFO was 1.0/25
kt while JTWC analyzed Ulika as too weak to classify. A 30/0630 UTC
ASCAT pass just west of Ulika showed maximum winds of 30 kt. I
have dropped the initial intensity to 30 kt for this advisory, so
Ulika has now weakened to a tropical depression.
 
The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 290/08 kt. Ulika
is expected to remain a shallow system steered by a ridge to the
northwest in the lower troposphere. There is a trough aloft to the
north of the system with a westerly jet stream along 20N. The strong
west winds aloft will help create strong vertical wind shear over
Ulika and prevent re-intensification. The official track forecast
closely follows the previous one. The intensity forecast continues
to closely follow SHIPS/LGEM. Ulika is expected to become a remnant
low on Friday and to dissipate by Saturday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 18.0N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 18.5N 142.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/0600Z 18.5N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 18.5N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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