ZCZC HFOTCPCP5 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 500 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016 ...MADELINE STILL TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 146.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hawaii County. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Madeline. Watches may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands later tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Madeline was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 146.3 West. Madeline is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west is expected by Tuesday, with Madeline expected to move just south of due west Tuesday night and Wednesday. Little change in forward speed is expected the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline will pass dangerously close to the Big Island Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Madeline is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected tonight, with gradual weakening forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii County on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, possibly becoming damaging along some coastlines Wednesday and Thursday. RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Madeline may reach Hawaii County on Wednesday, and may impact other Hawaiian Islands later Wednesday into Friday. Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, especially over windward portions of the Big Island. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN