* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 57 56 52 50 49 47 49 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 57 56 52 50 49 47 49 46 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 59 60 60 58 57 57 58 56 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 31 37 38 33 30 23 14 9 13 18 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 7 12 2 7 6 4 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 100 96 100 102 115 113 90 96 104 147 162 180 189 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 151 150 146 144 142 142 141 143 144 146 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 82 80 81 82 78 68 65 63 70 68 65 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 29 27 25 23 21 19 18 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 235 240 240 233 243 235 212 180 138 105 89 102 131 200 MB DIV 223 220 192 200 136 80 53 33 14 38 43 60 36 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 1 1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 2302 2269 2235 2212 2191 2188 2222 2190 2114 2078 2084 2077 2041 LAT (DEG N) 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.0 LONG(DEG W) 171.1 171.3 171.4 171.7 172.0 173.0 173.6 173.5 172.8 172.3 172.0 171.5 170.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 5 1 2 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 96 87 82 79 77 71 71 64 55 54 58 60 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -11. -17. -19. -17. -13. -8. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 11. 7. 5. 4. 2. 4. 1. -3. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/07/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 194.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##