* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 52 48 47 45 46 48 48 46 42 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 52 48 47 45 46 48 48 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 56 56 54 52 52 54 56 57 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 32 30 23 22 20 14 12 15 17 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 6 3 8 5 1 0 4 8 SHEAR DIR 96 94 109 116 115 97 93 108 111 136 154 175 172 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 146 143 143 144 144 144 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 73 67 67 65 64 64 62 55 51 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 30 29 28 25 22 20 19 18 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 231 241 249 243 240 219 178 140 118 96 93 113 120 200 MB DIV 234 213 200 162 89 60 29 20 17 66 53 44 9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2261 2215 2171 2161 2153 2171 2179 2186 2209 2225 2226 2235 2251 LAT (DEG N) 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.5 171.7 172.1 172.5 173.0 173.0 173.1 173.3 173.4 173.3 173.3 173.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 4 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 86 80 75 73 69 67 69 69 72 74 76 77 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -12. -9. -5. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 3. 2. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 179.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##