* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 42 44 42 41 41 39 37 34 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 42 44 42 41 41 39 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 43 41 41 42 42 41 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 24 21 18 17 15 13 10 11 9 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 9 9 5 5 5 2 0 7 7 15 SHEAR DIR 83 94 108 109 112 95 93 118 157 154 168 210 197 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 145 144 141 139 138 138 139 138 140 143 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 66 64 60 58 56 51 49 43 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 29 28 24 24 21 20 18 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 248 254 247 233 225 212 182 150 112 105 84 88 118 200 MB DIV 203 199 153 90 57 36 40 18 30 38 31 -11 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2220 2181 2144 2132 2122 2146 2160 2191 2207 2230 2262 2285 2293 LAT (DEG N) 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.0 7.6 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 171.9 172.1 172.5 172.8 173.7 174.3 174.7 174.8 175.0 175.4 175.4 175.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 80 76 70 65 58 46 37 36 37 40 39 47 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##