* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 53 51 49 48 44 45 42 38 35 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 55 53 51 49 48 44 45 42 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 56 54 51 51 52 52 52 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 25 18 13 14 10 10 8 9 9 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 7 5 0 1 -2 -3 0 4 6 21 SHEAR DIR 109 123 128 126 115 90 126 142 163 175 212 211 189 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 141 139 137 136 136 137 137 138 139 142 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 63 60 57 55 56 56 53 49 46 40 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 28 26 25 23 22 21 19 18 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 239 230 216 210 203 190 166 138 103 88 85 113 129 200 MB DIV 163 129 81 65 36 18 6 7 39 50 25 3 -10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2112 2098 2087 2096 2106 2120 2128 2160 2191 2215 2238 2270 2309 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.3 7.8 LONG(DEG W) 171.9 172.4 172.9 173.3 173.7 174.2 174.6 174.9 175.1 175.2 175.4 175.5 175.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 64 56 45 38 32 26 21 22 24 28 30 36 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -15. -15. -18. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -10. -13. -17. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##