* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 54 53 51 49 50 49 47 45 41 35 V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 54 53 51 49 50 49 47 45 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 55 54 52 50 49 47 45 43 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 20 14 13 11 12 10 6 6 14 8 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 10 10 10 14 14 9 8 4 11 24 25 SHEAR DIR 118 121 135 131 140 124 130 120 146 165 208 181 198 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 141 140 139 139 138 138 140 142 144 146 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 61 58 56 53 56 55 53 52 55 52 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 26 27 26 26 25 25 23 21 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 243 233 230 219 201 171 147 112 86 84 96 124 144 200 MB DIV 183 155 117 80 51 26 10 27 55 52 27 17 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 2167 2161 2156 2162 2169 2191 2214 2230 2246 2277 2324 2372 2419 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.3 6.8 LONG(DEG W) 172.7 173.1 173.5 173.8 174.1 174.5 174.9 175.1 175.2 175.4 175.7 175.8 175.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 67 60 50 45 40 37 35 35 37 42 50 65 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##