* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 45 42 36 35 34 32 30 24 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 45 42 36 35 34 32 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 50 48 46 44 41 38 35 33 31 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 12 8 6 8 9 0 4 9 14 13 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 12 12 13 14 14 16 7 4 10 24 23 SHEAR DIR 120 127 142 152 136 146 325 185 168 178 194 198 207 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 141 140 139 139 139 139 140 141 144 146 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 59 54 53 54 62 60 58 56 48 43 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 27 26 26 26 26 23 23 21 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 227 226 208 188 169 153 121 86 96 115 142 151 153 200 MB DIV 158 117 87 63 43 26 19 37 42 38 -8 3 11 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2131 2135 2141 2143 2145 2183 2207 2230 2238 2269 2293 2348 2420 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.3 6.7 LONG(DEG W) 172.8 173.1 173.4 173.7 173.9 174.4 174.7 174.9 175.0 175.2 175.3 175.5 175.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 58 52 48 42 37 37 37 40 40 45 50 65 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -19. -20. -21. -23. -25. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##