* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 42 40 37 36 34 35 37 38 39 37 V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 42 40 37 36 34 35 37 38 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 40 38 37 36 36 37 40 42 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 12 14 17 15 5 7 10 9 13 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 9 6 4 2 1 2 0 6 14 24 20 SHEAR DIR 131 128 126 110 121 127 115 137 151 167 161 169 164 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 140 139 140 140 143 145 147 150 152 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 56 52 52 54 57 56 56 55 52 49 44 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 22 22 23 21 19 19 18 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 228 214 188 168 158 148 115 98 90 118 152 160 164 200 MB DIV 100 64 28 27 11 9 60 58 43 22 11 19 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2134 2136 2138 2157 2175 2214 2238 2277 2332 2395 2459 2538 2640 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.3 LONG(DEG W) 173.2 173.5 173.7 174.0 174.4 174.9 175.0 175.3 175.6 175.9 176.1 176.5 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 40 37 35 35 40 45 57 70 81 86 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##