* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 37 36 33 29 28 27 29 30 34 36 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 37 36 33 29 28 27 29 30 34 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 35 34 32 31 31 31 32 33 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 18 16 14 11 12 14 11 11 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 5 4 3 0 5 2 1 9 16 9 4 SHEAR DIR 121 111 103 110 125 136 147 147 175 177 173 178 201 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 140 140 141 142 143 147 151 154 156 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 51 55 58 59 55 54 51 46 42 40 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 14 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 211 183 167 155 150 124 96 86 109 133 148 158 154 200 MB DIV 63 24 30 33 43 21 61 63 40 0 24 7 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2155 2165 2176 2195 2215 2246 2285 2317 2341 2396 2508 2597 2689 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.3 6.8 5.8 4.9 3.9 LONG(DEG W) 173.7 174.0 174.2 174.5 174.7 175.0 175.3 175.4 175.4 175.6 176.0 176.2 176.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 41 42 42 44 50 59 66 78 86 83 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -16. -17. -18. -16. -15. -11. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##