* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 31 31 31 33 36 38 42 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 31 31 33 36 38 42 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 32 31 30 30 31 33 37 39 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 19 17 9 8 12 14 15 15 17 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 6 3 0 3 7 -1 0 6 17 16 12 SHEAR DIR 119 104 111 117 129 129 119 146 164 173 175 173 201 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 140 141 142 143 146 150 154 156 156 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 58 58 56 53 51 48 42 44 44 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 191 169 159 151 137 103 81 89 123 152 163 167 161 200 MB DIV 43 46 33 40 15 50 48 36 6 2 7 -17 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2209 2221 2232 2240 2247 2262 2294 2318 2365 2453 2575 2673 2770 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.1 4.9 4.0 3.2 LONG(DEG W) 174.1 174.3 174.4 174.5 174.6 174.8 175.0 175.1 175.3 175.6 175.9 176.2 176.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 55 55 55 55 61 66 75 86 84 81 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -4. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##