* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 31 31 29 31 33 37 40 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 31 31 29 31 33 37 40 45 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 27 25 25 26 29 33 37 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 16 14 13 9 9 13 12 12 12 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 1 -1 2 -1 -3 0 10 12 11 12 SHEAR DIR 103 109 120 126 131 160 152 163 175 171 184 190 229 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 140 140 142 142 145 148 151 153 156 159 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 58 58 55 54 51 47 44 41 42 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 18 16 16 17 16 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 171 162 154 140 121 94 76 96 126 147 162 165 164 200 MB DIV 40 33 33 17 38 58 44 57 -1 21 28 27 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2232 2247 2262 2270 2278 2293 2325 2380 2444 2524 2620 2726 2856 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.0 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 2.7 LONG(DEG W) 174.4 174.6 174.8 174.9 175.0 175.2 175.4 175.6 175.8 176.1 176.5 176.8 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 55 55 55 55 61 73 83 86 83 82 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -9. -10. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -4. -2. 2. 5. 10. 13. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##